Many companies use autumn as an opportunity to promote themselves. Take Novartis, for example: the Basel-based pharmaceuticals group has a packed financial calendar for September. The SMI heavyweight is taking part in a total of ten such events, both virtually and in person. As well as Paris, London, Munich and Ermatingen, on the shores of Lake Constance, New York is one of the destinations for senior management. Novartis will be among those taking part in the “Bernstein Insights: Healthcare Leaders and Disruptors” conference held in the US metropolis on 23 September – and it could meet Moderna there, because the US biotechnology firm has likewise committed to attending the third iteration of this healthcare forum. It is highly likely that Moderna’s managers will outshine their Basel counterparts when it comes to attracting attention, given that the biotech’s stock is one of the hottest shares on Wall Street.
Moderna's market capitalisation has grown almost fivefold since the turn of the year. That puts its stock in eleventh place in the performance ranking of the nearly 3,400 companies included in the Nasdaq Composite Index. Moderna really took off in the middle of August after it presented research data on an innovative melanoma vaccine. When combined with the immunotherapy Keytruda from its partner Merck & Co, the mRNA vaccine Intismeran was able to hit all the targets in a clinical study required for licensing. Genetic changes in the tumours of the more than 1,100 patients suffering from malignant melanoma who took part were analysed, before the vaccine was then tailored specifically to the individual characteristics. Keytruda activates the immune system at the same time so that the body can detect and attack the cancerous cells. Administered together, the two active agents appreciably curbed both the reappearance and the spread of the tumour.
This increases Moderna’s chances of building significant business above and beyond the COVID-19 vaccine. Analysts at Barclays Bank reckon the new melanoma treatment will deliver sales of around USDbn 3 by 2035. Meanwhile, entirely new prospects could be opening up for oncology in general. According to analysis by the World Health Organisation (WHO), one in five people will develop cancer at some point in their life. In 2024 almost 10 million patients across the world fell victim to this disease, making it the second most common cause of death after cardiovascular disease. Going forward, the picture looks bleak: without decisive countermeasures, says the WHO, by 2050 the annual number of new cases could rise to nearly 35 million from the current figure of around 20.5 million.
Researchers across the world are working hard on conquering this threat. At the same time, oncology is a multi-billion-dollar business for the pharmaceuticals industry. According to Vision Research, it generated USDbn 321.19 in revenue around the globe in 2024, more than half of this from the treatment of cancer. The market researchers think sales could top USDbn 900 by 2034 (see chart). That would put the annual growth rate for oncology at 10.9%. The experts see Europe developing at a particularly rapid rate, with the Old Continent expected to produce an average annual increase in oncology sales of 15.8% by 2034. It is not only Moderna and Merck & Co. who are getting involved in this sector: diligent research is also being carried on in Switzerland. Novartis will certainly be highlighting its oncology division at the various investor events in September. Roche, too, is on the move, and will be holding “Pharma Day 2026” on 28 September. Matt Hellmann, who heads oncological product development, will be among the speakers in London. In short, the pharmaceuticals sector in general, and the cancer pipeline in particular, will remain in the focus of investors through the next few weeks of autumn.
As of 10 September 2026; source: Moderna
As of 28 February; Source: Vision Research