A special event will be held in the “Palacete Virtvs” in the heart of Lisbon on 21 April, when the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) holds a reception in the 19th century neoclassical building. This will give guests an opportunity to look back on the first day of the ICSG’s spring conference. There will be no shortage of things for the representatives from politics and the mining industry to talk about, given that the global copper market is once again exposed to extreme influences. Hardly had the turmoil caused by trade policy in general, and the tariff dispute between the USA and China in particular, begun to subside than the war in the Middle East threw up new concerns. The market players gathered in the Portuguese capital are likely to await with all the more trepidation the forecasts of the industry organisation, which will set out the current outlook for 2026 and 2027 on the morning of 22 April.
The ICSG experts had already published an initial forecast for the current year at their conference last autumn, predicting that the balance between supply and demand on the global copper market would fall back into deficit. In 2024 and 2025 the world had sufficient stocks of the most important industrial metal for the first time since the 2009 global financial crisis. When the ICSG published its estimate, the price of copper was already heading upwards. On the Comex, the US commodity exchange, the rally peaked at the end of January with an all-time high of over USD 6.50 per pound, driven by hopes of a thriving global economy, the prospects of further interest rate cuts, problems in the mining sector, a weakening US dollar and interest from investors. The economic optimism stemmed primarily from China, with almost 60% of worldwide copper demand coming from the Middle Kingdom.
Less than two months after that historic peak, all the euphoria has disappeared. Firstly, the price of the commodity was hit by rising stocks. According to an analysis by J.P. Morgan, the volume of copper held in storage at commodity exchanges in the USA, Europe and the Far East and by customs authorities has reached its highest level since 2018. Secondly, the red metal’s particular sensitivity to economic conditions manifested itself once again as economic prospects around the world became gloomier. The war in the Middle East has only made matters worse, with the associated oil price shock threatening to choke the motor of the economy. However, the conflict is also causing problems with already fragile copper production. In mines whose ores contain a relatively high concentration of the metal, what is known as the solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX/EW) process is applied. This is true of the Congo, among others, one of the most important producers in the world. To enable it to utilise the SX/EW process, the African country is reliant on imports of sulphur and sulphur dioxide. These substances come primarily from the Gulf regions. Given the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, though, they cannot reach their target markets at the moment.
Despite the short-term uncertainties and turbulence, the long-term drivers of the copper market appear to be intact. Its high conductivity and resistance to corrosion make the industrial metal indispensable to global progress. “As the world enters an Age of Electricity, strong demand growth for copper is anticipated from a wide variety of sources,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated. Alongside grids, these include electric vehicles, construction, industry and data centres. In a study published in early March, the agency offers an alarming forecast: “Based on the current project pipeline, the IEA anticipates that the copper market could face a supply deficit of 30% by 2035.” Among other factors, the experts base their assessment on the decline in copper ore grades in mining, rising capital costs and increasing exploration project complexity. The possible countermeasures outlined by the IEA include stimulating investment in new mines, advancing material efficiency, substituting the metal and recycling it. In short, copper as a commodity is more indispensable than ever – and the current price slump is hardly likely to change that.
e=expected; as at 24 February 2026, forecast: October 2025; source: ICSG
As at 26 March 2026; source: Reuters Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.