Elton John is “touched by gold”. In a film almost half an hour long, the British pop star offers an insight into his fascination for the precious metal. The programme covers the spectrum from the Gold Disc through the Oscar to the shiny gold outfit and the yellow metal built into the studio microphone. The World Gold Council (WGC) published the clip in mid-September, since when it has been viewed on YouTube nearly 9 million times. Strictly speaking, gold would never have needed such a lavishly produced advertising format: the price of the most important precious metal has been enjoying a historic rally, peaking at USD 4,381 per troy ounce on 20 October 2025. On that date gold was traded at more than two thirds above its closing rate for the previous year. The metal subsequently fell back towards the USD 4,000 mark.
J.P. Morgan regards the consolidation, which followed a phase of high cash inflows and ongoing momentum, as healthy. It does not change the US big bank’s long-term and structurally optimistic assessment of the precious metal. The trend towards greater diversification with the aid of gold is intact, it believes, both in the official currency reserves and with investors. As far as investor buying behaviour is concerned, the WGC figures speak for themselves: physically backed gold ETFs posted outflows between 2021 and 2024. It’s a whole different story this year, however, with the sector attracting capital investment equivalent to more than 600 tonnes of gold by the middle of October (see graph).
The central banks had already seized the opportunity ahead of the most recent price rally, boosting their reserves by more than 1,000 tonnes of gold over each of the last three years. While official purchases have slowed somewhat recently, J.P. Morgan expects central banks to buy around 760 tonnes of the precious metal in both the current year and 2026. To compare, from 2017 to 2021 demand from this corner averaged less than 500 tonnes. The analysts also reckon that ETF investors will go on buying and expect to see net inflows of a further 360 or so tonnes by the end of 2026. Whether central bankers, asset managers or private investors, they remain convinced there are fundamental reasons to invest in the safe-haven currency. Alongside geopolitical tensions, these include inflation, which remains rampant in some regions. Another is monetary policy, particularly in the USA.
On 29 October 2025 (after we go to press), the Fed is expected to cut interest rates for a second time this year to the new range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The money markets are fully anticipating further loosening steps and see the base rate ending 2026 a whole percentage point down on its current level. Since gold itself does not generate any ongoing income, low interest rates are inherently advantageous for the commodity – and vice versa. The forecasts of J.P. Morgan are correspondingly optimistic, with the analysts expecting the price of gold to average USD 5,055 per troy ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. That would represent a gain of roughly another USD 1,000 per troy ounce within the space of a year. It is not only gold dealers and ETF providers that are set to see business flourish still further, then: it looks like there will be plenty for the mining sector to do as well. This fact has not escaped the stock markets – many of the mining stocks regarded as alternatives to a direct investment in gold have appreciated considerably along with the precious metal.
As at 30.10.2025; source: BloombergPast performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
As at 17 October 2025; source: World Gold CouncilPast performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.