The decision on who will exercise what is probably the most important political office in the world for the next four years will be reached on 5 November. In the race for the US presidency, the candidates have just 15 more weeks to persuade the electorate to vote for them. So far, though, there is only one officially confirmed contender, the Republicans having recently nominated ex-president Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Joe Biden dropped a bombshell at the weekend, when the incumbent announced that he would not be running again for the Democrats. It appears that the pressure from his party had become too great after the 81-year-old had made an increasingly frail impression in recent weeks. Biden put in a disastrous performance especially in the first TV duel with Trump at the end of June. In front of an audience of millions, he seemed tired, spoke in a low and raspy voice and made several slips of the tongue. His opponent had an armchair ride, as Trump was able to show Biden up while at the same time disseminating many untruths.
Kamala Harris is now regarded as the most promising contender for the Democratic candidacy. Not only has Joe Biden come out in favour of his vice-president, but other leading party members, including potential rivals, also support the 59-year-old. The prices on PredictIt have shifted accordingly. Users of this platform bet on certain political events. As with stock market trading, bid and ask prices are quoted. Just a few days after an attacker had injured Donald Trump on his ear, the contract on the Republican reached a high of USD 0.69, putting the ex-president 45 US cents ahead of Joe Biden. While the price of the incumbent headed to 0 following his exit from the race, the “Kamala Harris” share rocketed skywards (see chart). It goes without saying that the election campaign is also making waves on the “real” stock market. With the likelihood of a return to the White House, shares that are seen as benefiting from Trump’s policies have risen. By contrast, stocks that fit the Democrats’ agenda came under pressure with the now softening candidate.
A glance at the election programmes quickly reveals which sectors are particularly sensitive to future US policy. One of the priorities for the Democrats is healthcare. They would like to keep insurance premiums low while at the same time strengthening medical provision, particularly for children and the old. The Biden administration has also committed itself to climate protection and the energy transition. So far in the current term Washington has initiated “cleantech” investment to the tune of more than USDbn 200. The expansion of wind and solar energy is set to remain a focus of the Democrats. The same is true for strengthening the network and e-mobility infrastructure. The party is pursuing a progressive approach with regard to the technology sector. Innovation and digital infrastructure are to be supported just as much as fair competition.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump certainly harbours aversions to the technology giants. He has, for instance, called the mega-trend of artificial intelligence “dangerous and worrying”. It is clear that the Republican is likely to pursue a liberal economic path in the event of victory at the polls, just as he did during his first term. The financial sector in particular could profit from deregulation and tax cuts. A White House occupied by Trump would probably also adopt a friendly tone towards the traditional energy groups. The energy independence of the United States is sacred to Republicans, which is why the US oil giants can hope for support from the Oval Office. The same is true for the mining sector, with Trump making no secret of the fact that he is minded to use customs tariffs in order to protect US raw materials producers from international competition. At a time of geopolitical tension, the Republicans are also putting their faith in a strong military and correspondingly higher defence spending. Nothing has been decided yet, though. The mood could change in the next 15 weeks, particularly after the upcoming change of candidate for the Democrats. Either way, the elections in the USA promise plenty of excitement and a wealth of opportunities for investors.
Quelle: PredictIt; Stand: 22. Juli 2024
Source: Leonteq, Solactive
