Switzerland entered a new age on 17 February when, after two years of coronavirus, its parliament lifted almost all measures taken to combat the pandemic. By doing so, the government believes that it has laid the foundations for a speedy normalisation of social and business life. In taking this step, Switzerland is not by any means the only and certainly not the first country to proclaim a "Freedom Day": more and more countries, such as Austria and Germany, are preparing for such an opening. The trailblazers here are Great Britain and Denmark, which had already done away with all restrictions at the start of February on the back of a positive epidemiological trend.
The return to a new normality should lend wings to economies around the globe. In its latest economic forecast, the EU Commission anticipates that growth this year will be primarily driven by private consumption, where there is considerable ground to be made up. The recovery in the service and tourism sector and a rise in capital investment are also having a supportive impact, however. Despite continued high inflation for the moment, Brussels reckons that the eurozone economy will pick up from early in the year. The EU Commission predicts a rise in gross domestic product (GDP) of 4.0% for the year as a whole. This will enable Europe to keep roughly in line with worldwide expansion – according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy is set to grow by 4.4% in 2022.
The improving outlook is already being reflected in some sectors, particularly those that had been hit hardest by the crisis. This is particularly true for the aviation industry and the tourism sector. In a recent interview, for instance, Lufthansa board member Harry Hohmeister expressed optimism, saying that the group was sensing "a lot of catching up to do after two years of the pandemic" and seeing a "strong increase in demand for holiday flights." That this new travel bug is huge is also evident from the accommodation rental platform Airbnb: the US group forecast higher than expected earnings for the first quarter thanks to rising domestic travel and longer stays by guests. Marriott International is singing the same tune, the hotel chain having just reported results much higher than planned due to an intact recovery in travel. The change of trend can be read from its share price too: despite a weak general market environment, Marriott climbed more than 13% in the last three months alone, even posting a new all-time high.
The cruise industry is not yet at that stage in the cycle. After the complete stoppage in 2020 due to coronavirus, though, even this industry is showing some signs of recovery. As restrictions continue to loosen, ocean-going travel should gradually return to its old strength. The sector is already sending positive signals. Tui Cruises, for instance, a joint venture between Tui and cruise group Royal Caribbean, is reporting healthy bookings for the 2022/23 season. Norwegian Cruise Line is likewise looking forward with optimism, holding out the prospect of positive net earnings for the second half of 2022 on an adjusted basis. Although this has not yet met with a euphoric response on the stock market – the share prices of both Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line are still well below the peaks achieved pre-pandemic – the duo are at least now showing signs of recovery.
Source: Eurostat, WKO, e = expected
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