Worries about currency depreciation are as old as money itself. Whether people use coins, notes or bank transfers to meet their obligations, they are and have always been dependent on the business partner trusting in the countervalue. The modern monetary system is based on fiat money, a term derived from the Latin “fiat”, which essentially means “let it be, let it become, let it come into being”. As the name suggests, our money is more or less created out of nothing – it has no countervalue. It is up to states, or their central banks, to ensure stability. Institutions such as the Swiss National Bank, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve do their utmost to accomplish this task. Nevertheless, periods of high inflation, excessive government debt and financial crises erode confidence in fiat money.
Right now the US dollar exemplifies the growing doubts about the monetary system. On the one hand, inflation in the United States remains stubborn. Although the Fed is combating inflation by keeping interest rates relatively high, in doing so the central bank is coming under increasing criticism from the White House, with president Trump demanding rate cuts. His administration’s tax and fiscal policies are likely to cause the US debt mountain to grow even further. To meet its payment obligations, manage budget deficits and keep the economy going even in times of crisis, the United States is constantly inflating the stock of money, which climbed above the USDtn 22 mark in the middle of 2025 (see graph). The exponential growth is not a purely American phenomenon: in other countries and regions too, such as the eurozone, China and Japan, the “demand for money” has been rising for decades.
Against this background, it is not surprising that hard assets are valued highly. For a long time gold was considered the only crisis or reserve currency. Now a second alternative has come in the form of Bitcoin. Ten years ago the cryptocurrency’s capitalisation stood at less than USDbn 5. At that time it did not contribute even 0.1% to the basket of hard currencies dominated by gold. Now the amount of Bitcoin in circulation exceeds USDtn 2 and its share of the hard currency basket has risen to over 8%. The precious metal and the cryptocurrency add up to around USDtn 25. “The overall share of hard monetary assets relative to global money supply has nearly doubled, reflecting a growing investor response to structural risks in the traditional financial system,” says WisdomTree. In its latest study the asset manager works through various future scenarios. Alongside the global money supply, the key inputs for the model are the development of hard monetary assets, the share of Bitcoin in this pool and the projected supply of gold and Bitcoin.
The experts describe as unlikely the deflationary scenario, which assumes greater fiscal discipline on the part of governments, rising real interest rates and easing inflation. This would result in Bitcoin treading water until 2030, while for gold the model has the price declining to USD 3,000 per troy ounce. The base scenario is very different, with the WisdomTree analysts conjecturing a continuation of prevailing dynamics. In addition to mild but persistent inflation around central bank targets, the assumptions include moderate real GDP growth as well as a steady expansion of global liquidity. On this basis the model predicts a Bitcoin price of USD 250,000 by 2030. That would mean the cryptocurrency delivering an 18% annualised return from its current price level. “Gold rises to approximately USD 4,000 per ounce, equating to a 3.7 % capitalised annual growth rate over the same period,” the study’s authors write.
The inflationary scenario leads to even higher prices. Here WisdomTree outlines a future of accelerating monetary expansion amid unresolved budgetary problems, rising debt burdens and the political appeal of inflation as a hidden tax on debt. In this scenario Bitcoin would climb by more than a third on average each year until 2030, trading at USD 500,000 by the end of the forecast period. “Gold also sees meaningful appreciation,” the analysts state. With an annualised return of 11%, the precious metal would reach USD 5,500 per troy ounce by the end of 2030. What is certain is that the supply of both gold and Bitcoin remains constrained, while at the same time the demand for monetary stability is rising. For the WisdomTree specialists, the conclusion from this mixed picture is obvious: “In a structurally inflationary world, astute investors own both assets.”
As at August 2025; source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
As at May 2025; source: WisdomTree, Bitcoin and Gold: Three Model Forecasts for 2030 and BeyondPast performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
